Preparing for Environmental Migration 2010

Global warming will reduce the “carrying capacity” of ecosystems in large parts of the world – that is, their ability to provide food, water and shelter for the people who currently live there. The most widely cited estimate puts the number of people affected at 200 million individuals by 2050 – similar to the current total number of international labor migrants, and more than five times the number of refugees and internally displaced persons accounted for by the United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR).

In spite of the large number of people likely to be affected in the near future, the academic and policy communities so far have given little thought to how these people might find new homes and livelihoods.

Reluctance to tackle this issue reflects, in part, the potentially wide-ranging implications in international law of defining the status of an environmental refugee akin to that of a refugee from conflict or persecution.

Furthermore, environmental migration is a complex phenomenon. Only rarely will the impact of environmental degradation be as obvious as a farmer’s land being submerged by a rising sea level. More typically, local, regional, and international factors like population growth, soil degradation, higher temperatures, and extreme weather events will combine to threaten livelihoods. External or internal migration is one way in which individuals may respond to this threat: Either whole households leave affected areas or individual family members seek work elsewhere, giving the household an additional source of income.

How can opportunities for international labor migration be enhanced to help people to cope with the consequences of climate change and environmental degradation? In what circumstances and to what degree are adaptation strategies substitutes for migration? Under what circumstances do we need an international regime for environmental migration? If so, which international organization would be best placed to take care of it? If people need to move, should they be directed primarily to high-income countries (where economic opportunities would be richer) or elsewhere within their own countries or neighboring countries (where integration might be easier)? What are feasible strategies for creating jobs for large numbers of resettled individuals and how can the private sector contribute? Should immigration regimes in high-income countries be readjusted to favor environmental migrants (rather than, say, the high-skilled)? How can business and civil society help address the migration problems? What policy framework would enable these groups to play an appropriate and effective role?