Towards a Global Electricity Market 2010

In principle, solar and wind are more than enough to deliver any amount of energy mankind might want to demand. However, these sources are usually best exploitable in areas that are far from demand centres: It is technologically challenging to transport electricity over large distances and even more to store it; as a consequence electricity markets have developed as regional markets.

To change this, proposals have been made recently to generate electricity e.g. by large-scale solar thermal power plants in North Africa and transport it through high voltage direct current power lines to the demand centres in Europe. Projections claim that by 2050, 700 TWh electricity per year - this matches a rough quarter of the European electricity demand in 2006 - can be transmitted, raising yearly revenues of 35 bn EUR.

In addition, other world regions aim for an integration of regional power grids and sources: In January 2010, several European governments littoral to the North Sea announced to connect their production of wind energy.

Yet, projections show that in the midterm the future energy mix for electricity generation will still contain fossil energy and nuclear power. The share of the fossil energy in the future energy mix strongly depends on the implementation of low-carbon technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the ability to substitute low-carbon for high-carbon energy sources. Nuclear power will also constitute an important option due to its provision of emission free power. However, since there are unsolved major caveats of nuclear power, an expansion of the nuclear power share is not the complete answer to the energy puzzle:

What are the options and their potential contributions to the future energy mix for electricity generation? What proportion of our energy needs will still have to be covered by fossil energy like gas, coal and nuclear power? How can the supply in regions that lack those energy sources be secured? What is the appropriate time frame for implementation in order to avert serious consequences of climate change? What is the politically feasible mix? What are the business challenges for energy companies in this changing environment? Are large scale projects for electricity generation a sensible strategy for large international energy companies to prepare for a carbon-free future? Or is the installation of decentralized small-scale systems the more efficient solution? Will it be possible to combine the two approaches? Or are they conflicting? How could a secure functioning of a global electricity market be guaranteed – especially if potentially instable states are involved? Will importing countries be willing to pay the price of a security loss for carbon free energy?