Identifying and Preventing Future Security Threats
The last decade has clearly demonstrated that the nature of threats to international security has changed significantly. Structural challenges, such as terrorism, cyber-attacks and nuclear proliferation, have created an entirely new security environment. National states’ monopoly on using force is eroding, state boundaries have lost much of their importance and private actors have become increasingly powerful in international security.
History demonstrates that many security threats would never have grown into a fully-fledged problem, if they had been identified and addressed at an earlier stage. Today, leaders and societies have to act as early as possible to reduce the probability that risks develop their potential of turning into serious threats for to regional or global security. It is vital to identify potential scenarios where terrorism, insurgency, nuclear proliferation or cyber-attacks could evolve from being abstract and hypothetical menaces into posing real and severe problems — and seeking tangible solutions for prevention.
In terms of counterterrorism, counterinsurgency and political engagement, how should governments and international organizations deal with non-state aggressors in present and future conflicts? How can weak governments that are threatened by non-state aggressors be supported most efficiently?
How much damage can possibly be done by cyber-attacks? How should states that are perpetrators be addressed?
Can the emergence of new nuclear powers and potential regional nuclear armament races be stopped? How likely is the threat of terrorism using weapons of mass destruction?
In what respects are the threats of terrorism, cyber-attacks and nuclear proliferation inter-related? What responses follow from these inter-relationships? How should strategies to address these threats—by governments, international organizations and private enterprises—become inter-related?