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Symposium 2014

Setting the Scene - The Global Economic Outlook

The Challenge

The global economy is in a “muddle through” situation. Over the past few months, global GDP forecasts have been persistently downgraded. For this year and next, very few among the major international organizations and banks expect global GDP growth to surpass 4%. The most advanced economies have slightly higher growth expectations (from a very low base), but in most advanced economies concerns over disinflation/deflation have increased. Emerging markets have, on the whole, the opposite problem: slightly lower growth expectations, but higher inflation. Tellingly, in the first quarter of this year, exports and imports from the G7 and the BRICs fell by respectively 2.6 and 0.1% (from the previous quarter), wrong-footing WTO’s forecast of a substantial improvement in 2014. Listen to what Germany’s most reputable forecasting institution is expecting for the years ahead, and how international experts assess the situation.